The energy situation forecast has become an important basis for governments, energy industries and enterprises to formulate energy plans and make investment decisions. The annual global energy outlook report issued by international authorities is the core material for extensive reference in the industry. A comparative analysis of these outlook reports will help to objectively assess the current state of energy development and scientifically grasp the future development trend of the energy market.
Energy Outlook Report Overview
At present, there are many organizations engaged in energy statistics and development forecasting in the world. Among them, there are three main types of authority and influence: the International Energy Agency (IEA), the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), and the Global Wind Energy Council. (GWEC) is an internationally recognized energy agency represented by BP, ExxonMobil, and an international energy consulting company represented by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF).
As of the end of July, the above six organizations have released a total of seven international energy outlooks or energy market reports this year. The report not only provides a large amount of energy statistics, but also analyzes and judges the medium and long-term global energy market trends.
By combing these reports, we can find that they have different focuses on the research field and the outlook cycle. Among them, in the research field, IEA "Petroleum Market Report 2018", "Natural Gas Market Report 2018" and GWEC "Global Wind Power Development Report 2017" focus on the development of single energy segment, BNEF "2018 New Energy Market Long-term Outlook" focuses on New energy sources such as wind power and photovoltaics, EIA International Energy Outlook 2018, BP World Energy Outlook 2018, and ExxonMobil's 2040 Energy Outlook (2018 Edition) broaden the scope of research to the entire energy sector.
In the outlook cycle, GWEC's forecast period is 2018-2022
, IEA is 2018-2023; BP, EIA, ExxonMobil's outlook period is as far as 2040, BNEF's vision is farthest, until 2050.
Energy Outlook report main topic analysis
(1) Global energy demand growth
Many institutions believe that the world's energy demand will continue to grow in the future as energy efficiency increases and the growth rate of world energy demand declines. BP predicts that energy demand will grow by about 33
% in the next 25 years. In comparison, ExxonMobil's estimates are conservative, and global energy demand is growing at around 25%.
Both BP and ExxonMobil agree that emerging economies such as China and India will be the main drivers of future global energy demand growth. ExxonMobil believes that non-OECD countries (such as China and India) may have an energy demand growth of around 40%. BP's forecast shows that by 2040, China and India will account for half of global energy demand growth, and as China transitions to a more sustainable economic growth model, its energy growth will slow, and India will be in the 21st century. Beyond China at the beginning of the year, it has become the fastest growing energy market in the world.
(2) Energy structure, low carbon transformation will continue
Agencies predict that the transition to a lower carbon energy structure will continue. The EIA believes that by 2040, all fuel consumption except coal will increase in the world (see Figure 1).
BNEF predicts that coal consumption in the global power generation industry will fall by 56% between 2017 and 2050. BP pointed out that the continued rapid growth of renewable energy is leading to the most diversified energy structure in history. In 2040, oil, natural gas, coal and non-fossil energy are expected to provide about one quarter of the world's energy, more than 40%. Energy demand growth will come from renewable sources. (See Figure 2)
(3) Carbon emission peak
BP's research shows that under the “gradual transformation” scenario, global carbon emissions will increase by about 10% by 2040, which is higher than the reduction required to achieve the Paris commitment. In the “faster transition” scenario, it is able to achieve a 50% reduction in carbon emissions in 2040 compared to 2016, but the power industry is close to full decarbonization, as most of the additional emission reductions come from power generation.
For the peak of carbon emissions, various institutions are more optimistic. BP's forecast is that carbon emissions will peak in 2026. BNEF believes that the global power industry carbon emissions will peak in 2027, the peak amount is 2% higher than the 2017 emissions, and then all the way down, 2050 emissions will be 38% lower than the peak. ExxonMobil may be the most cautious of the agencies, insisting that carbon dioxide emissions will peak in 2040, later than BP and BNEF forecasts.
(4) Electric vehicles have limited impact on oil
According to the IEA report, the substitution of new energy vehicles for oil is extremely small. In the medium or long term, the substitution is not enough to have a subversive impact on oil. BP also holds the same view that car fuels account for only about 20% of oil consumption, so electric vehicles will grow faster and will not cause oil demand to collapse. ExxonMobil’s view is that more electric vehicles and improved energy efficiency of conventional engines may cause liquid fuels used in light-duty fuel vehicles worldwide to peak in 2030, but nevertheless, with the needs of the commercial transportation and chemical industries. Growth, oil will still play a leading role in the global energy mix.
(5) China related analysis
China is the world's largest energy consumer in the past 20 years and the most important source of global energy growth. BP's World Energy Outlook (2018 edition) said that by 2040 China will account for 24% of the world's total energy consumption, accounting for 27% of global net growth. At the same time, China's energy structure will undergo significant changes. Under the “gradual transformation” scenario, the proportion of coal in primary energy will fall from 62% in 2016 to 36% in 2040. In contrast, the proportion of natural gas has nearly doubled to 13%, renewable energy is expanding rapidly, from 3% in 2016 to 18% in 2040. Renewable energy will replace oil as China's second largest energy source.
Main energy product development trends
(1) Coal: global coal consumption tends to be flat
BP believes that coal consumption is generally flat during the outlook period. In 2040, the proportion of coal in primary energy fell to 21%, the lowest since the industrial revolution. Although China's coal consumption peaked, China is still the world's largest coal market, accounting for 40% of global coal demand by 2040. The reduced consumption of China and the OECD will be offset by increased demand from India and other emerging Asian economies. India is the largest growth market for coal, and its share of global coal demand will double from just over 10% in 2016 to around 25% in 2040. (See Figure 3)
For the future of coal power, BP and BNEF have opposite attitudes. BP believes that although the fuel structure of power generation will undergo a major transformation, coal will remain the most important source of electricity by 2040, accounting for nearly 30%. BNEF is worried that when renewable energy is already cheap enough, the impact of abandonment on electricity will be low, and coal power will become the biggest loser. The reason is that from the perspective of electricity costs, coal power will not compete with wind power and photovoltaics; from the perspective of system flexibility, coal power will not be able to compete with gas power generation and energy storage. In the end, most of the coal and electricity assets will be squeezed out of the market. In the "2018 New Energy Market Long-Term Outlook (NEO)", it is predicted that with the increase in wind power and photovoltaic cost advantages, by the middle of this century, the global coal-electricity ratio will be reduced from the current 38% to 11%; fossil energy is The share of the power structure will fall from the current level of more than 2/3 to 29% in 2050.
(2) Oil: The global oil industry will continue to develop
The IEA "Oil Market Report 2018" shows that strong world economic growth requires more oil. It is expected that oil demand growth will reach an annual average of 1.2 million barrels per day, and oil demand will reach 104.7 million barrels per day by 2023, compared to 2017. Increased by 6.9 million barrels per day. Among them, China and India will contribute nearly 50% of global oil demand growth. The difference is that China's oil demand growth rate will slow down in 2023 compared with 2010-2017, while India's oil demand growth will be slightly slower. There is rise. BP's forecast is similar to that of the IEA. By 2040, the average daily consumption of global oil will reach 105 million barrels per day, an increase of 11.7% over 2016. However, in the mid to late 1930s, oil consumption will grow stagnant.
Atkinson, head of the IEA's oil industry and marketing department, explained that the oil market report 2018 pointed out that the oil market will go through two stages in the next six years. Before 2020, non-OPEC crude oil supply will exceed demand growth; but then to 2023 In the year, if the investment continues to be insufficient, the global effective buffer capacity as a buffer will only reach 2.2% of the demand, and the possibility of an increase in oil price volatility will increase before the new supply is put into production.
In the next 20 years, oil as the main energy status of transportation can not be replaced, BP's World Energy Outlook 2018 data shows that 55
% of the oil will be used as transportation energy. At the same time, the consumption of petroleum as a chemical use will also increase, so in general, the global oil industry will continue to develop.
(3) Natural gas: will surpass coal as the second largest energy source
For the future development of natural gas, various institutions are optimistic that natural gas will surpass coal by 2025 and become the world's second largest energy source. According to ExxonMobil, the share of natural gas in primary energy will increase from 23.1% in 2016 to 25.7% in 2040. By 2040, global natural gas demand will increase by nearly 40% from 2016, with an average annual growth rate of 1.3%. Natural gas will contribute 37.2% of the increase in global energy demand. BP believes that the share of natural gas in primary energy will increase from 24.1% to 26.2% by 2040.
The IEA's Natural Gas Market Report 2018 analysis indicates that China will dominate the growing demand for natural gas. Global gas demand is expected to grow by an average of 1.6% over the next five years, and emerging Asian markets will be the main engine of demand. Due to China's “blue sky” policy and the impetus to improve air quality, China alone accounts for one-third of global demand growth in 2022. (See Figure 4)
For natural gas power generation, BNEF's "2018 New Energy Market Long-Term Outlook" view is that the future of gas power lies in the role value, not the amount of electricity generated. The role of gas power will be from the provision of all-weather base-load power to a backup power source for renewable energy. According to forecasts, between 2017 and 2050, coal consumption in the global power generation industry will fall by 56%, and natural gas consumption will increase by 14%.
(4) Renewable energy: strong growth in the future
In the next few years, the rapid growth of new energy sources such as wind power photovoltaics has become an industry consensus. ExxonMobil is optimistic in its report that solar power and wind power are the fastest growing energy supply, with a total growth of around 400%; by 2040, solar and wind power may triple. BP pointed out that the increasing competitiveness of wind and solar energy makes strong growth of renewable energy possible. The subsidy system will be phased out in the mid-1920s, and renewable energy is increasingly competitive with other fuels. China is the biggest source of growth, and India will be the second largest source of growth by 2030.
BNEF's Long-Term Outlook for 2018 New Energy Market predicts that between 2018 and 2050, global investment in new generations will reach US$11.5 trillion, of which US$8.4 trillion (73%) will be used for wind power and photovoltaics. The report predicts that with the rapid decline in wind power and photovoltaic costs and the decline in battery storage costs, by 2050, wind and photovoltaic power generation is expected to account for nearly 50%.
According to the GWEC “Global Wind Power Development Report 2017” forecast for the global wind power market in 2018-2022, the global wind power market will remain at the level of 2017 in 2018, and the global wind power market will resume growth in 2019 and 2020, in the 21st century. At the beginning of the year, it will break through 60 GW again; by the end of 2022, the total installed capacity of wind power will reach 840 GW. (See Figure 5)